I have three words for Hurricanes fans approaching the 2010 season: Proceed With Caution. I’m looking around the internet and I am a little surprised at what I see. There’s talk on Grassy – sorry, Canes Time – about this team going 14-0. Forget the fact that Miami has yet to win an ACC title since joining the division in 2004. Fans are openly expecting 12 regular season wins, an ACC Championship Game win, and a BCS victory in Tempe. Take a look at the poll on our site. The Canes won 9 games last year. Despite that, NINETY TWO percent of you are expecting 10+ wins. 72% are predicting either 11-1 or 12-0. Only two people out of 100 expect Miami to have 8 or less losses (and I guarantee you that those two votes are from Buckeye fans).
Hold on a second.
Are the Canes finally a bunch of upperclassmen with not only experience, but exceptional talent? Yes. Should that translate into a better team in 2010? Of course. But, please don’t think that 12-0 or 11-1 in the regular season is the likely scenario. Listen, this team should be able to contend with any other team in the country. But the bottom line is Coach Randy Shannon has lost at least 4 games in each year he’s coached. This team is the giant unknown. As easily as fans can picture 12-0 and 11-1, there are some experts that view 9-3 just as likely. And you know what? They’re right. I’m not saying this team doesn’t have the talent to not only win the ACC, but contend for a national title this year. On paper, they should be one of the few favorites to win the division. However, we have to temper our expectations just a bit considering 9-4 is the best season we’ve had since Larry Coker.
As I’m thinking to myself, “Man, this constant 12-0 and 11-1 talk is not leaving much wiggle room,” I stumbled upon Don Bailey Jr‘s blog on wqam.com. DBJ is well known for his die hard, borderline obsessive affiliation with the Canes. Forget goggles, I think Don pisses orange urine and craps green feces (or pisses green urine and craps orange feces). Even DBJ, however, is keeping things in perspective:
‘Realistic Expectations for 2010′
Don Bailey Jr.
August 6, 2010
Some things I expect this year, realistically:
-Less interceptions from Jacory Harris
-A team that is in better shape
-From a win-loss standpoint, a team that is similar to last year, give or take one game (assuming injuries are not a major obstacle)
-One WR to surface
-The RB’s to look like the WR’s last year with all of them contributing
-Mark Whipple to continue to establish the running game
-Some Big wins, and a few losses, but I do see more stability.
-I expect people will assume Miami is going to take the next step. I am not there yet.
-Any injury to the QB or a LB to be devastating
-Growing pains on the offensive line
-Adjustments in the playcalling to compensate for lack of experience at TE
-Explosiveness out of the backfield
-The WR’s to be at least as good as last year
-The DE to be strong.
-Brandon Harris to emerge as one of the best DB’s in the history of the school. He is ultra-athletic. The total package.
-Matt Bosher to be the Canes most consistent player
I can’t disagree with most of what he says (save for the RBs looking like last year’s WRs; as you know, we’re all over Damien Berry breaking out in a big way this year). I found the following line most intriguing:”-Some Big wins, and a few losses, but I do see more stability.” A few losses. Take a deep breath, it’s going to be OK. Remember, a 10-2 season and possible ACC title would be an improvement on last year and should be viewed as such by the fans.
I’m afraid too much is going to be expected out of Shannon this year. 10 wins with this team (and schedule) would merit a B+ for any coach. So if they lose to Ohio State and then go to #15 Pittsburgh and lose a close one there to fall to 1-2, please don’t start crying that the sky is falling. Let the season play out before rushing to judgement. Without ever having won an ACC title, Coach Shannon should be afforded an entire season to do just that.
{ 6 comments… read them below or add one }
10-2 with losses to OSU and Pitt gets them in the ACC ch and a good bowl game. Winding up 10 – 4 would be a definite downer. I think 11 – 3 would satisfy all but the most blindly optimistic. A 10 – 3 season with no ACC ch game and a bowl loss would leave a lot of us grumbling.
OFNC, can’t argue with that. I think the bottom line is, we have to at least play in the ACC title game. No ACC title game appearance and a Gator or Peach Bowl will put Shannon on the hot seat heading into 2011.
I’ll say it again,
We need to at LEAST win the Coastal. Period. I personally think next year is when we make a Nat. Champion run. This year…………Let’s just win the Coastal, and then try and win the conference.
We’ll have plenty of time to go 14-0 next year, when our schedule will look something like:
vs Bethune Cookman
vs OSU…..without Pryor
@ FSU……without Ponder
vs Duke
@ UNC……without all those good D players
@ VT…without TT and at least one of those good RB’s
vs Kansas St
vs BC
vs UVA
@ UMD
vs GT
@ USF
Strong points Hurriphin. Hard to even think about next season when this one is just about upon us. But, they will be a more experienced, and have solid junior/senior leadership on paper in 2011. We will, however, lose Allen Bailey, Damien Berry, Graig Cooper, Matt Bosher, Figueroa, Franklin, Hankerson, Colin McCarthy, and DVD to graduation. Add to that the possibility of losing Jacory and Brandon Harris to the draft if they have exceptional seasons. Maybe a couple other juniors who have unexpected breakout years. Of course, this is all speculation and your national title run next year probably assumes all the juniors stay. And who really knows how this season plays out until it does. But, this season may be the year they need to put it all together no matter what the circumstances are.
Agreed that they HAVE TO WIN the ACC-Coastal. Get themselves to the ACC title game, and get a major bowl bid.
Franz,
We will lose several of the guys you named, but Jacory isn’t going anywhere early and I firmly believe that B Harris will return if it looks like we’ll be in good shape for a Nat. in 11′. Our losses shouldn’t have near the effect that the other teams we will face should.
And I don’t mean any harm, but I can do without Coop, (although I am a big Coop supporter) DVD, and Figs.
P.S.
I included T Pryor because I’m convinced that if Tebow can get drafted in the 1st Rnd. somebody will assure Pryor that should he come out early, he’ll be a first-rounder too.
Hurriphin…strong points on the schedule next year, but we had an article recently on the amount of talent Miami loses this year and it’s eye opening. I can’t see Brandon Harris staying if he’s slated to go in the first or second round. Jacory ain’t goin anywhere, but look at the other talent Franz lists…to me, Bailey, Bosher and Brandon Harris are the holes (also our only All ACC players). I think a lot of people underestimate Coop’s value to this team. Not just in playmaking ability, but pass protection and special teams returns.