Living in Atlanta, I hear it all the time, “SEC Football – best conference in the land!” “SEC’s the best!!” “Thurr ain’t no confrince bettur than thuh Ess-E-Say!” Sorry Cletus, not so fast. Sure, the past four national champs have come from the SEC. But, the ACC is closing in on the perceived powerhouse conference in the south.
People use various barometers to come to their conclusions. Some look at Top 10 finishes, others look at Top 25s. Some just look solely at championships. They all tell a story. Truth lies within all of them, albeit at varying degrees. For my research, I looked solely at the AP poll. Why the AP? I find the AP poll to be a much more accurate barometer than the Coaches Poll or BCS rankings. I never understood how a head coach’s opinion on the top 25 schools could count the same as a sports writer’s. For one, he spends his Saturdays coaching a single game. Plus, doesn’t he spend the rest of his time preparing his team for the following week’s opponent? Conversely, a sports writer’s job is to cover all teams and provide analysis on them. He or she has nothing else to do on Saturday but sit back and watch as many games as possible. Besides, how accurate can the Coach’s poll be when Steve Spurrier is constantly ranking the Duke Blue Devils at #25, regardless of their performance on the field?
Secondly, I looked at the past three years. Yes, it is a small sample size, but remember that Miami and Virginia Tech joined the ACC in 2004. Also, the SEC had a team that recently climbed out of NCAA imposed sanctions (Alabama) so I didn’t want to factor in any records that might have been affected by that. Specifically, I’m looking at the Top 25 finishes for each conference in each of the past three years. Top 10s are impressive and Top 5s even more so, but to finish the year ranked in the AP’s top 25 poll typically means that you are a worthy opponent for any school.
Over the past three years, there has been a trend. In 2007, five SEC schools finished in the AP’s top 25 (LSU, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn). That’s certainly impressive. No other conference had more top 25 finishes in that time span (the Big 12 equaled the feat in 2007 and 2008). The ACC, on the other hand, finished with three ranked schools (Virginia Tech, Boston College, Clemson). The absence of Florida State and Miami is clearly felt here. In 2008, the gap was closed, as the SEC had one more ranked team at the end of the year than the ACC. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Mississippi for the SEC; Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech for the ACC. In 2009, the gap was fully closed, with both teams harboring 4 ranked schools (SEC: Alabama, Florida, LSU, Mississippi; ACC: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson). For those scoring at home:
2007: SEC 5, ACC 3
2008: SEC 4, ACC 3
2009: SEC 4, ACC 4
Numbers alone don’t tell the story. Both Miami and Florida State have been rebuilding and look to return to their pedestals as perennial powerhouses. This has been expected of Florida State for years, and while we’re not sold on them returning to previous dominance, most experts agree that they should once again join the list of ranked teams. Having been ranked in each of the past two seasons, we expect both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech to make the list as well. Losing C.J. Spiller and Jacoby Ford does not help Clemson, but they or Boston College could very well end up in the Top 25. Another more likely possibility is Butch Davis’ Tar Heels who have several first round prospects on their roster.
Looking to the SEC, things don’t look as clear as they once did. Gone are Tim Tebow and Jevon Snead. Sure, Alabama will be strong, as will the Gators, but there are not many certainties after that. It would be hard to imagine LSU being left off, and with Mississippi rebuilding, one has to think that either Auburn or Georgia will pick up an extra win or two. All told, it would not be surprising to find the ACC with more ranked teams than the SEC. That is a bold statement, especially for someone who lives in the the South.
2010 Final AP Poll Predictions:
SEC: 4 (Alabama, Florida, LSU, Georgia)
ACC: 5 (Miami, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina)
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Just found this blog. Thought I would let you know that twice as many teams in the SEC West finished in the top 25 compared to the ACC. Final Score- SEC 6, ACC 2, 5th Consecutive National Championship. Good news though is that maybe this year the ACC pass the Big XII and become the 4th best conference.